Sunday, May 30, 2010

Zero Rates Until A New Currency?

Is there a way out of this deflationary debt trap? Will we have permanently low short rates? Will we see sub 2% 10 year Treasury rates? Is it possible the US Fed will never again have a tight monetary policy? Will we avoid the necessary recapitalization through austerity and savings and instead see a final collapse where banks are past recapitalization and central banks have to expand their balance sheets, unsanitized, by five or ten fold? Or, will we see an eventual return of massive inflation?

Are we in a secular bear market, cyclical bull market? If so, will we see traditional bear market values on book value and earnings? Should we hold only hard assets - gold, land, diamonds, unlevered equity? Where is China - overheated and overbuilt economically and unsustainable politically? A sharp slowdown ahead - death to copper, oil, Australia and Canada?

Or are we in the early stages of a sustainable recovery...


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